Ben Shepherd writes: I just had a read of the recently released GBJBW 2009 media outlook and it’s a good read.
They identify 7 key trends that will define 2009 – the most interesting being ‘The structural shift from old media will accelerate in 2009’
“We see no reason for the structural shift away from traditional media to slow in 2009. In fact, the challenging macro environment could actually see the shift from traditional media to new media accelerate in 2009.”
This is being driven by three key things according to GSJBW
1. Continued audience fragmentation (the ‘traditional media’ operators now have more competition than ever – digital, mobile, PVR, STV etc)
2. Advertiser preferences will see ad dollars migrate at faster rate than audiences (Advertisers demanding more accountable media and greater ROI … move away from expensive broadcast methods and move towards “relatively cheaper” new media and STV … they also talk about advertisers and agencies holding back budgets in contigency and looking for last minute deals/distress across all media)
3. Cost cutting driving decay in content quality; this must harm audiences (media companies are being forced to trim operating costs … will this affect programming and will audiences start to notice? If yes, “traditional media companies face the prospect of the current
challenges (cyclical and structural) actually driving further audience migration away from traditional media.”
So who benefits? Digital and STV … the biggest loser looks to be newspapers as FTA TV is still the most dominant single segment even though it is taking hits.
They also talk in the document about the rationalisation of underperforming digital sites … which is something often discussed on this blog – “Usage measures (i.e. UB’s, page impressions, time spent) are great measures of a site’s popularity, however the key measure of economic sustainability remains the site’s ability to effectively monetise this user base”
Great read if you can get your hands on it.