2009: How are my predictions going?


Back in December last year I made some predictions about what I thought would happen in 2010.

Probably a good idea to check and see where these are at.

Original post is here -> https://talkingdigital.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/ben-shepherd-9-trends-to-look-for-in-2009/

1. Search costs will rise
Hard to really quantify this one. Since December I’ve changed roles and my client base has changed so don’t have the luxury of seeing like for like category costs.

2. Off Deck Mobile advertising will become interesting
Have to say so far, this assertion is way off. Off deck mobile advertising has hardly moved at all and wouldn’t be categorised as interesting by probably anyone.

3. Content will remain important
I think content is still extremely important and its value has been more acknowledged in this year as the BT/targeting providers aren’t as new news as they once were.

4. Branded content will evolve locally
Personally I think this is happening. Clients are more open to developing their own content and they’re not looking to bolt onto others. This is an exciting development.

5. Increasingly competitive ad market
I was right on yield hits – these are definitely happening across the board. So far 2009 hasn’t claimed any major scalps but the next 6 months aren’t looking that rosy so it will be interesting to see whether this country can sustain the amount of operators it has when there’s not a whole lot differentiating them.

6. Measurement debate will evolve
I think the debate is evolving but the actions aren’t so much. We still have the same benchmark (Nielsen) and results wise we’re still focusing on pretty shallow numbers.

7. Death of Digital silo’s
Agencies are moving in this way, as much as they can with limited resource and headcount. It’s far from perfect however. Sales team are still in silos and this needs to change.

8. Focus on online boomers
Probably wrong here … all the focus is still on under 30’s and the over 30’s aren’t really being looked at closely. I guess it’s easier to focus on the young.

9. More qualitative research
Lots of talk about this, little action. Lack of financial resource is holding this back across the board. I thought the end of the good times of 20%+ growth would fast track this but it doesn’t seem to be happening.

I’ve looked through the other people we got to cover the 9 areas they felt would make a difference in 2009 and the most accurate so far has been former IAB head Patty Keegan (read it here – https://talkingdigital.wordpress.com/2008/12/15/patty-keegan-2009/) who definitely showed some foresight.

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2 responses to “2009: How are my predictions going?

  1. Imagine my surprise as I sit in front of the TV tonite with laptop, catching up on your blog?!

    I’m not sure how much foresight I had, most of my “predictions” were based on what I was seeing happen through our work with “traditional” media owners and agencies who were educating staff about digital so they could continue to be competitive.

    Agree with your comment about silos being slow to disappear. I still believe that until we stop separating “digital” from the core sales, strategy, planning & buying parts of the business, and embrace the people who have the client relationships, we’ll continue to be frustrated.

    Here’s a prediction for 2010 – unless the media companies and agencies who are still paralysed with indecision and cost cuts invest in skilling their people about digital pretty soon, they won’t be ready for the eventual recovery.

  2. talkingdigital

    I reckon that last prediction is absolutely spot on. Slashing results in some immediate term benefit (minimal) but potential long term pain (excruciating)

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